Web 2.0 Predictions for 2006
posted Sunday, 1 January 2006
Now that we're on the other side of the New Year, I thought I'd make an attempt at predicting what will happen with Web 2.0 in 2006. I know everyone is probably already exhausted from reading all the other great prediction lists that are coming out. To give credit where it's due, Dan Farber has a great summary on ZDNet, and mentions Web 2.0 numerous times, while Rob Hof at BusinessWeek has one of the funnier prediction lists, also surprisingly heavy with Web 2.0 references. Even ITWorld lists Web 2.0 as one of the top stories of 2005. The RSS Blog also has a full blown Web 2.0 predictions list for 2006 that was posted today, but I still want to take a shot.
Readers of this blog know where I stand with Web 2.0. It's not a perfect term by any means but it's more than serviceable as an umbrella for the interrelated design patterns that are Web 2.0. Despite the recent brouhaha in the blogosphere, the term has clearly become firmly entrenched, so expect to see it a lot this year. Finally, no matter what you think, the innovation and sheer creativity we're witnessing in the actual production and availability of high quality, online, social software has been an compelling story in 2005 and will continue in kind in 2006.
Here's my best take on what will happen in the Web 2.0 space in 2006:
Web 2.0 Predictions for 2006
1) Web 2.0 Will Not Peak in 2006 But the Term Will - The interesting schizophrenia we have with the term and the ideas will get resolved. Microsoft went with Live Software instead of Web 2.0 and I've heard numerous other suggestions such as Web.Better, WebWare, Web++, Next Generation of the Web, and even Web 3.0. The term has been much derided and is losing love for sure. But I see almost no one criticizing the ideas behind Web 2.0; the concepts of social software, a read/write Web, entirely Web-based software, free form shared organization, the Web as API & Platform, software as a service, collective intelligence, The Long Tail, radical decentralization and the end of individual servers, and more. These ideas are truly compelling, and more importantly, they fit together and reinforce each other elegantly. This is going to be big stuff folks, but the term may not last out the year. If the right one comes along, expect a sea change almost overnight.
2) 37signals Will Cross The 1,000,000 User Mark - Like the Dow crossing 10,000, it's a huge psychological barrier and crossing it will put them on the map forever. In my opinion, 37signals has the just right balance of Web 2.0 design patterns, and they also understand simplicity, elegance, and the essence of satisfying software. And as importantly, they have mindshare right now. This event, perhaps more than any other, will make even the skeptics take Web 2.0 ideas seriously as a major force in software. And it will position 37signals to outright compete with the big boys this year, who are not always delivering the goods because of vested interest in their old world versions of 37signals absolutely terrific Web 2.0 software. In my humble opinion, 37signals truly gets how to build and sustain great software and an associated community. With over 250,000 users now, they have a little ways to go but I predict they'll make a million sometime in the 3rd quarter, perhaps right after school starts (why would a student pay for anything when they can use Writeboard for free?) That is, if Microsoft doesn't buy them first and turn their products into Office Live. The subject of which takes us to...
3) Microsoft Faceplants Twice with Live Software, But Third Time Is the Charm - We've heard almost nothing about Windows Live or Office Live since their original announcement, but Microsoft is presumably quite busy getting the unreleased Office Live ready for a prime time release this year. With continuous beta being the norm with Web 2.0 (micro-releases of features and fixes hourly instead of on a scale of months or years as is normal with shrinkwrapped software), Microsoft's early attempts at Office Live will be wanting. But by design. This is the new way of building software, and in the end it was what Microsoft was always good at: Getting something out the door to the real world and obtaining feedback from brave, early adopters. And then improving the product until the third version was so good that Microsoft's marketing and distribution machines could crush the competition. They will learn how to do this, but in a constant, rapid-fire Web 2.0 fashion. If I was in a Web 2.0 software space that Microsoft was going to compete in during 2006-7, I'd really start to worry.
4) Grassroots Use of Web 2.0 Ideas Will Be A Big Story - Why didn't the federal government do something like Katrinalist? Why couldn't they have gone on TV and mobilized the populace to gather the information that was needed? Because they just didn't think of it is why. But high profile successes like Katrinalist and CivicSpace show how harnessing collective intelligence and real-time leveraging of the two-way Web tremendously improved people's lives in a bad situation. It's making everyone sit back and think of the possibilities. And expect that it will become common for people to mobilize on the fly and use our ubiquitous Web connectivity for good works when bad things happen. Or even just to get constituents in an uproar on an issue. I expect lots of conferences and research/position papers to be issued and eventually even public policy will form around making proper use of these essential and potentially life-saving techniques.
5) Everything Will Get An RSS Feed - Well, not everything, but if it doesn't have it, the risks of marginalization are very high. RSS improvements like Microsoft's Simple Sharing Extensions will probably not be huge in 2006, and Atom has some life in it, but I'm seeing widespread movement to RSS with some of our clients. The bottom line: If your website doesn't make its content available in RSS, you'll be yesterday's news. Why? Because the new tools in people's hands (RSS feed readers, aggregators, filters, searchers, etc) just won't be able to include you. Yes, believe it, and ignore the anti-hype.
6) The Quest to Monetize Web 2.0 Will Continue (to Struggle) - Figuring out how to meter Web 2.0 software is going to be an increasingly important topic for startups, and even their users, as everyone tries to figure out how to keep the software running. I've discussed the monetization of Web 2.0 before and barring the return of micropayments or some other innovative solution, advertising and subscription fees will be the only way. And no one will want to pay a monthly bill for their word processor, social bookmarking site, or project management tool. This needs an excellent solution folks and it will be an important story to watch.
7) Web 2.0 Will Enter the Public Consciousness - Many people are already just using Web 2.0 software and not talking about it with labels. They do sense something different has happened but they don't understand how their Web software got so good so suddenly. The advent of Ajax last year and really excellent back end support like Ruby on Rails has changed the nature of Web software forever. The mainstream press is now onto this and like John Battelle predicted, Web 2.0 will probably make the cover of a mainstream news magazine this year. The faucet flow of new Web 2.0 software will turn into a torrent as the lightweight programming models and languages that support Web 2.0's less-is-more-and-higher-quality ideas make it incredibly easy to create new online software. And everyone, and I mean everyone, will start to notice this and learn the name.
8) Outages of Major Web 2.0 Software Sites Will Cause a Crisis of Faith - The recent del.icio.us and TypePad outages hurt a lot of folks, but nothing like a major outage at 37signals or Writely would. Many of the early adopters will become ever more dependent on their online software and service failures will cause public outrage like nothing before it. Imagine your computer and all its software and data gone, poof! That's what happens when a big Web 2.0 application goes down. This will cause trusted, 3rd party data storage and escrow services like openomy and others to form partnerships with online software companies for storage of a user's files. Also expect a push for open data formats for all online software so that user data can be moved around between services with ease. Outages will continue to get more common as Web 2.0 services get more popular and user loads peak unexpectedly. The good news: The state of the art will be pushed further and services will leverage more radical decentralization to ensure there are no single points of failure.
9) Provider Switching Will Grow Important, Especially With Blogs - Like in the outage scenario above, users will demand a way to move their blogs, pictures, bookmarks, and everything else to other sites if they don't like the service or it shuts down. Dave Winer in particular has been making some noise lately about a blogger's bill of rights, and is suggesting it will include the ability to move their posts and repoint their URL, even if the site is completely down. Expect some success on an official provider switching movement sometime this year, but also don't hold your breath, it might take until 2007 until the criticality of this is fully appreciated.
10) Bubble 2.0 Won't Happen - Like the principles of lean and agile software development points out, you don't have to spend tons of money to get the right working features. Most software projects take months to get the first operational release and often with the wrong features and priorities. Web 2.0's tools and techniques make sure you get software done quickly and cheap, with immediate feedback of what works and what doesn't, including what your users really need or don't. There's just not enough investment needed or value to be created to demand the giant VC funds that Web 1.0 seemed to require (but didn't actually need). The Web 2.0 company valuations, if startups actually go public, won't get out of control, though the hype might.
So, that's where I think we'll be this year. I'm very excited by the possibilities and looking forward to numerous interesting Web 2.0 developments. And sure, some of these won't turn out to be true, but I suspect most probably will.
What do you think will happen in the Web 2.0 world in 2006?links: del.icio.us
re 6: I don't really understand the negative attitude towards the
monetization problem - I'd rather call it challenge than problem anyway. A
fee (let it be monthly or yearly) with an easy payment method - even Paypal
if necessary - would certainly be an option. Even old school advertising
could work perfectly for Web 2.0, since you acquire endless amounts of user
specific data, click-flows and category specific usage.
