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    Thinking Beyond Web 2.0: Social Computing and the Internet Singularity

    posted Friday, 25 August 2006
    I'm here in Sebastopol, California for O'Reilly's yearly FOO Camp and consequently I'm in the mood for thinking beyond the signature topic of this blog and towards where things are headed next.  As a good example of this, my colleague Jeremy Geelan has been closely following the possibilities here as well and has been investigating the ultimate ramifications of Web 2.0 and social software in general, a topic that Jeremy and others have been referring to as Social Computing.  And looking even beyond this, though certainly as extensions of Web 2.0 and Social Computing, we have the complete collapsing together of all of our software and IT systems, something that Microsoft's Gary Flake as referred to earlier this year during the launch of Live Labs as the Internet Singularity, which he describes as:

    "The idea that a deeper and tighter coupling between the online and offline worlds will accelerate science, business, society, and self-actualization." - Dr. Gary Flake

    Of course, the effects of the next generation of the Web are just beginning to be felt and the world of software in 10 years will likely be somewhat recognizable by us, but only barely.  I've been focusing recently on how we're beginning to see vast and sudden changes in the way people are using the Web (and software in general) and citing the examples of YouTube and MySpace as exemplars of the dislocation that can happen suddenly as these new sea changes take place.




    Thinking Beyond Web 2.0




    Naturally, this subject in general is a fascinating one and what some of us are hoping to discuss and uncover at places like FOO Camp and the upcoming The New New Internet, which we're holding in Virginia next month.  Both events and many others coming up show the interest in this topic and promise to chart out some of the answers to these difficult questions.  In this vein of exploration, the diagram above contains some rough brainstorming of mine that provides a basic proximation of the lineage of trends as we watch Service-Oriented Architecture, Web 2.0, Enterprise 2.0, and other organizing principles in software, not so much merge but reflect the fact that they are really aspects of the same conceptual thing.  This "same thing" (something I occasionally like to call the Timeless Way of Building Software) can look almost completely different depending on what we're focusing on, despite having the same essential, constituent parts.  In this new word, people and the relationships between them and the flow of control towards a more democratic model is this change in focus.

    What do we do about all this? Developing strategies that map out, embrace, and enable the possibilities of course, but a lot of it will just happen to us of its own accord.

    Finally, in the spirit of Web 2.0, I would love to encourage some contributed sound bites below describing how you beleive the era of Web 2.0 will finish unfolding, please enter them in comments below. Also, more updates from FOO Camp shortly as it gets started tonight...

    links: del.icio.us    



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    1. Haydn left...
    Saturday, 26 August 2006 11:46 am :: http://www.mediangler.com

    Socially, work-wise and in the macro-economic sphere the late 20th century computing paradigm and even the internet made less sense to us users than it did to investors and geeks. Web 2.0 is re-empowering people and how it plays out is less of a technical issue than it is an issue of how enterprises deal with people who are rediscovering creativity.


    2. Jilly left...
    Saturday, 26 August 2006 11:56 am

    I like to stick my finner up my rumpus.


    3. Peter left...
    Saturday, 26 August 2006 2:48 pm

    @Haydn: Wow... what you said: an issue of how enterprises deal with people who are rediscovering creativity. It makes so much sense! Thanks for this. I really believe you have a point.

    People's creativity is starting to get uncontrolled by the big corporations, and people like it even more than the corporate presented creativity.

    The big change that's going to happen is sort of a revolution. I expect to see a lot of media companies go bankrupt and leaving the stage. Main media companies to be precise. They will have less and less value and will fail to adept to a people powered web. Their addiction to control will result in that failure. And that addiction is too hard to give up.


    4. Mike left...
    Saturday, 26 August 2006 5:20 pm

    Hi Dion,

    I believe you're saying important things, but the link I followed from Digg billed your site as explaining "the idea that a deeper and tighter coupling between the online and offline worlds will accelerate science, business, society, and self-actualization."

    Needless to say, that's Dr. Flake's idea, which you do not cover.

    I guess I'm just a bit grumpy over clicking on your link and not getting what I expected. I assume you didn't submit your site to Digg and thus aren't responsible for this apparent linkjack.

    Keep thinking, Mike

    </feedback>


    5. Fishcough left...
    Saturday, 26 August 2006 8:19 pm

    Jilly's comment is sooo Web 2.0.


    6. Philip Dorrell left...
    Saturday, 26 August 2006 9:27 pm :: http://www.1729.com/blog

    Some articles I have written on this subject: The Singularity: Purpose and Transition, Can the Internet Think?, The Open Source Singularity and Disorganized Incremental Software Development.


    7. Thomas Beck left...
    Sunday, 27 August 2006 10:44 pm :: http://www.beckshome.com

    Dion - Thanks again for inspiring my thinking. My follow-up went way, way beyond Web 2.0. Suffice it to say that I don't think our vocabulary today (SOA, SaaS, AJAX, etc.) is even sufficient (or appropriate) for talking about Internet singularity. I think this parallels other hard sciences where you must leave conventional thinking (mechanics, physics, etc.) aside to really make extraordinary leaps in progress (e.g. quantuum physics).

    Hope you enjoy my post at http://www.beckshome.com/Trackback.aspx?guid=acf1 54f7-6b3b-4f3a-b50f-14c1dd9b763a

    Thomas Beck thomas@beckshome.com www.beckshome.com


    8. Doug Floyd left...
    Monday, 28 August 2006 3:29 pm :: http://dougfloyd.wordpress.com

    I think these shifts in web 2.0 and beyond reflect a cultural consciousness that has been afoot at least since the mid-nineteenth century in thinkers like Kirkegaard. While Enlightened thinking introduced a modern world of individualism and advances in science, it also cut humans off from a sense of connectedness to each other and the world found among pre-Enlightenment people (who were often repressed on multiple levels). Thinkers like Kirkegaard and many writers after the Great War (WWI), bemoan the sense of human isolation and absudity of our disconnectedness. Some writer foresaw a new trend to community or other forms of reconnecting. Writers like Eugen Rosenstock Huessy suggested as early as the 1940s that a new tribalism was coming. I believe this trend to reconnecting and finding new way to connect to one another and our world drives (consciously or unconsciously) much of the development we've seen since the beginning of the Internet. I expect it to continue and I agree that it will most likely manifest ways that bring together a hybrid of online and offline connecting and relating.


    9. Justin left...
    Saturday, 2 September 2006 3:52 pm :: http://mactuner.blogspot.com

    Social computing seem inversely proportional to actually socializing. You know, in real life. If only it were a positive relationship.

    Some examples of web 2.0 having effects outside of the web would be nice.


    10. SJones left...
    Monday, 11 September 2006 12:50 am

    There can be no Web 2.0 Singularity in the enterprise until organizations tap into the social networking power of their customers and employees. The central ideas of Web 2.0 are that organizations 1) expose their APIs and metadata to generate external innovation and interest, 2) tap into the attention/intention economy of their audience (inside and outside), 3) apply that feedback to evolve better products. Unfortunately, traditional companies are terrified of exposing themselves to their customers (and competitors) and are awful at acknowledging the value of ideas from within and without.

    Web 2.0 companies like Google and Yahoo already get it. Eventually, though, mainstream companies will come to see the accelerating returns of the Web 2.0 feedback loop. Once that happens, it will open up a new era of innovation and economic change like we haven't seen since the PC revolution began.


    11. Sandra left...
    Tuesday, 17 October 2006 8:40 pm

    Hi Dion,

    Here's a demonstration of Internet Singularity applied to online user reviews and diversity of searches for the ipod and offline sales.

    http://weblogs.hitwise.com/sandra-hanchard/2006/10/internet_singularity_mat ching.html


    12. Rusty left...
    Monday, 25 December 2006 4:54 am :: http://www.theplugg.com

    I like it!


    13. Dr. Taly Weiss left...
    Sunday, 21 January 2007 8:28 pm

    Web 2.0 is an open to all platform, as such – it must hold all information with no restrains. That is the beauty of this platform and yes, it does imply that you will find a lot of irrelevant information (The web 2.0 antagonists claim that "we get too much crap"). But, this is exactly why contribution is necessary. If you meet unimportant information – you should "bury" it, or rank it low. This contribution will serve to sort the information by its relevancy and true value. I see contribution as means not only for adding more information but as a key to help others navigate in the endless information offered. With others actively responding you can decide what is best to read and what is worth your attention. Improving the contribution behavior is a necessary key to web 2.0 success but unfortunately it hasn't yet received the attention it deserves. We can easily recognize that not a lot do contribute to this collective intelligence as the ratio data (views per voters or per rankers, viewers per comments; viewers per members) found at web 2.0 reach about 3-5% at most. for more of these insights based on my academic experience see www.trendsspotting.com/blog/?p=1 and www.trendsspotting.com/blog/?p=4


    14. Marco Mugnatto left...
    Wednesday, 13 June 2007 1:29 pm :: http://mugnatto.blogspot.com

    I know some will laugh, but the future is Second Life (or a competitor).